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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(7:41) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 11-D.Parker to NYJ 38 for 4 yards (51-J.Stanford).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.73 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -1.64 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model