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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 21

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(13:32) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep right to 14-J.Landry (21-M.Claiborne).

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.18 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.69 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.75 EP