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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 81

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 61 yards to MIA 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to MIA 33 for 13 yards (23-T.Brooks; 54-B.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model