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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 4

New York Jets 17 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 7-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.22 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 4, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP