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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2017-09-17 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

MIN
33.3%
PIT
66.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.134 vs Case Keenum (MIN) -0.024 EPA/dropback (MIN starting Case Keenum in place of Sam Bradford)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21
–
PIT 27
Projected margin: PIT by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

MIN

Anthony Barr LB Questionable Hamstring
Sam Bradford QB Questionable Knee
Xavier Rhodes CB Questionable Hip

PIT

Jerald Hawkins T Out Knee
Vance McDonald TE Questionable Back
Stephon Tuitt DE Questionable Biceps
J.J. Wilcox S Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 9
–
PIT 26

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:10 TD PIT (3:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 10-M.Bryant for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – PIT 6
  • Q2 13:35 TD PIT (13:35) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – PIT 13
  • Q2 08:58 FG MIN (8:58) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 3 – PIT 14
  • Q3 12:24 FG PIT (12:24) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. MIN 3 – PIT 17
  • Q3 10:00 TD MIN (10:00) 30-C.Ham up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – PIT 17
  • Q3 05:09 FG PIT (5:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. MIN 9 – PIT 20
  • Q4 03:18 FG PIT (3:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. MIN 9 – PIT 23
  • Q4 01:57 FG PIT (1:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. MIN 9 – PIT 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:51) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to MIN 26, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:55) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 42 yards to PIT 23, Center-47-K.McDermott. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 22 for -1 yards (27-J.Kearse).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:51) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to PIT 40, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%

    (8:58) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:00) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to MIN 32, Center-57-K.Canaday. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 44 for 12 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:01) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to PIT 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:17) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to MIN 42, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 18 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:08) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to PIT 12, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%

    (:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to MIN 9, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:30) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley pass incomplete short right to 81-B.Bell (44-T.Matakevich) [31-M.Hilton]. Pressure by 31-Hilton.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 81%

    (12:24) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (5:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 30%

    (:15) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 31 yards to PIT 19, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 69%

    (10:08) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to MIN 1, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-29-B.Allen. Penalty on MIN-55-A.Barr, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:13) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 55 yards to PIT 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 34 for 7 yards (40-K.Brothers). PENALTY on PIT-56-A.Chickillo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 27.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 91%

    (3:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 15 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs. Coverage by 25-Burns. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 02:13.)

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 85%

    (1:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to MIN 34 for 6 yards (22-W.Gay). FUMBLES (22-W.Gay), RECOVERED by PIT-25-A.Burns at MIN 39. 25-A.Burns to MIN 39 for no gain (11-L.Treadwell).