Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to MIN 34 for 6 yards (22-W.Gay). FUMBLES (22-W.Gay), RECOVERED by PIT-25-A.Burns at MIN 39. 25-A.Burns to MIN 39 for no gain (11-L.Treadwell).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.58 EP
60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -1.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model