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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 28

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(12:24) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.40 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP