4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 11

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(5:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.47 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model