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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.21 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model