Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs. Coverage by 25-Burns. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 02:13.)

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.61 EP
72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.62 EP