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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:01) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to PIT 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model