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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:51) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to MIN 26, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.48 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model