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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 31 yards to PIT 19, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.81 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model