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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to MIN 9, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.09 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model