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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2017-09-10 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

JAX
39.7%
HOU
60.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Tom Savage (HOU) -0.057 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.081 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 19
–
HOU 21
Projected margin: HOU by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

JAX

Dede Westbrook WR Out Core Muscle Injury
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Ankle
T.J. Yeldon RB Questionable Hamstring

HOU

Alfred Blue RB Out Ankle
Will Fuller WR Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 29
–
HOU 7

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:12 FG JAX (12:12) 2-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 3 – HOU 0
  • Q2 14:52 FG JAX (14:52) 2-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 02:14 TD JAX (2:14) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – HOU 0
  • Q2 01:00 TD JAX (1:00) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage sacked at JAX 47 for -10 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-56-D.Fowler at JAX 47. 56-D.Fowler for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 18 – HOU 0
  • Q3 09:12 TD HOU (9:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – HOU 6
  • Q3 04:18 TD JAX (4:18) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 40-T.Bohanon for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 25 – HOU 7
  • Q4 03:15 FG JAX (3:15) 2-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 29 – HOU 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 85%

    (12:12) 2-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:44) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to JAX 38, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:22) 3-B.Nortman punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-43-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 24%

    (5:11) 9-S.Lechler punts 35 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (14:52) 2-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to JAX 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-M.Lee to JAX 25 for 7 yards (41-Z.Cunningham, 52-B.Peters).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (11:35) 3-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to HOU 32, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:22) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:51) 3-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to HOU 17, Center-43-M.Overton. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 38 for 21 yards (80-J.O'Shaughnessy).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%

    (2:14) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 89%

    (11:27) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:09) 9-S.Lechler punts 33 yards to JAX 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:30) 3-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to HOU 37, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 90%

    (3:15) 2-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 84 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 14 for -2 yards (sack split by 93-C.Campbell and 55-L.McCray).