Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 26 – Houston Texans 7

(8:30) 3-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to HOU 37, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model