4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 7

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:52) 2-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 7, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model