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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 58

Houston Texans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 26

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 9-S.Lechler punts 33 yards to JAX 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model