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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.31 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model