Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 81

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(10:44) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to JAX 38, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 81, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model