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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 72

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to JAX 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-M.Lee to JAX 25 for 7 yards (41-Z.Cunningham, 52-B.Peters).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 30, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model