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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 51

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 9-S.Lechler punts 35 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.54 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model