Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 78

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Houston Texans 0

(8:51) 3-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to HOU 17, Center-43-M.Overton. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 38 for 21 yards (80-J.O'Shaughnessy).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.43 EP
62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model