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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 20

Jacksonville Jaguars 26 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 2-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 20, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model