Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 84

Houston Texans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 29

(1:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 14 for -2 yards (sack split by 93-C.Campbell and 55-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

What Happened

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.58 EP
56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 84, worth -1.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model