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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2017-01-08 · 16:40 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 5.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

NYG
28.1%
GB
71.9%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.251 vs Eli Manning (NYG) -0.026 EPA/dropback
  • NYG offense: -0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NYG defense: -0.161 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
GB 27
Projected margin: GB by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

NYG

Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE Doubtful Hamstring
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Questionable Core Muscle

GB

Quinten Rollins CB Out Neck
James Starks RB Out Concussion
Damarious Randall CB Questionable Knee
Joe Thomas LB Questionable Back
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Knee
Bryan Bulaga T Questionable Abdomen
Randall Cobb WR Questionable Ankle
Jayrone Elliott LB Questionable Hand
Nick Perry LB Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 13
–
GB 38

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:48 FG NYG (5:48) 5-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – GB 0
  • Q2 07:29 FG NYG (7:29) 5-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 6 – GB 0
  • Q2 02:32 TD GB (2:32) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – GB 6
  • Q2 00:06 TD GB (:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – GB 13
  • Q3 05:23 TD NYG (5:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 15-T.King for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 12 – GB 14
  • Q3 03:00 TD GB (3:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – GB 20
  • Q3 00:25 FG GB (:25) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. NYG 13 – GB 24
  • Q4 09:27 TD GB (9:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – GB 30
  • Q4 02:49 TD GB (2:49) 22-A.Ripkowski up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – GB 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 62%

    (11:01) 9-B.Wing punts 29 yards to GB 6, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (9:30) 10-J.Schum punts 48 yards to NYG 38, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-28-J.Hawkins.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 97%

    (5:48) 5-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (:10) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to GB 45, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 31%

    (11:48) 9-B.Wing punts 32 yards to GB 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 33-M.Hyde to GB 22 for 7 yards (82-R.Lewis).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:23) 10-J.Schum punts 58 yards to NYG 5, Center-61-B.Goode. 17-D.Harris to NYG 8 for 3 yards (50-B.Martinez).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%

    (7:29) 5-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 15 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 36%

    (5:06) 10-J.Schum punts 38 yards to NYG 7, Center-61-B.Goode. 17-D.Harris to NYG 8 for 1 yard (83-J.Janis, 28-J.Hawkins).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:57) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to NYG 45, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 33-M.Hyde to NYG 38 for 7 yards (17-D.Harris).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:46) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to GB 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 33-M.Hyde pushed ob at GB 20 for 4 yards (17-D.Harris).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 44%

    (:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (12:57) 10-J.Schum punts 37 yards to NYG 26, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-22-A.Ripkowski.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 47%

    (10:17) 9-B.Wing punts 31 yards to GB 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:08) 78-J.Spriggs reported in as eligible. 88-T.Montgomery left tackle to GB 41 for -1 yards (21-L.Collins; 52-J.Casillas).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:04) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to GB 40, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 33-M.Hyde to NYG 37 for 23 yards (93-B.Goodson).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (:25) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:47) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to GB 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 33-M.Hyde to GB 36 for 15 yards (59-D.Kennard). Penalty on GB-25-M.Evans, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on GB-88-T.Montgomery, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 30.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 15-T.King to GB 37 for 18 yards (33-M.Hyde).