Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 55

New York Giants 13 – Green Bay Packers 38

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 15-T.King to GB 37 for 18 yards (33-M.Hyde).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.60 EP
60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model