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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 90

New York Giants 13 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to GB 40, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 33-M.Hyde to NYG 37 for 23 yards (93-B.Goodson).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.33 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP