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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 10-J.Schum punts 58 yards to NYG 5, Center-61-B.Goode. 17-D.Harris to NYG 8 for 3 yards (50-B.Martinez).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.49 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 63, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model