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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 59

New York Giants 6 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to GB 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 33-M.Hyde pushed ob at GB 20 for 4 yards (17-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.06 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP