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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 80

New York Giants 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:10) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to GB 45, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.65 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 37, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP