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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 14 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 78-J.Spriggs reported in as eligible. 88-T.Montgomery left tackle to GB 41 for -1 yards (21-L.Collins; 52-J.Casillas).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.00 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model