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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 35

New York Giants 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 9-B.Wing punts 29 yards to GB 6, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP