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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 8

New York Giants 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 5-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.68 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP