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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 86

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 10-J.Schum punts 48 yards to NYG 38, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-28-J.Hawkins.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.60 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 86, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 44, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP