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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 22

New York Giants 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 5-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.56 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model