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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 🌧 Rain Spread -11.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

SEA
61.6%
SF
38.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Colin Kaepernick (SF): -0.100 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 24
–
SF 19
Projected margin: SEA by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

SEA

C.J. Prosise RB Out Shoulder

SF

Marcus Martin C Out Ankle
Andrew Tiller G Out Ankle
Dontae Johnson CB Questionable Groin
Rashard Robinson CB Questionable Hamstring
Joe Staley T Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 25
–
SF 23

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:08 FG SEA (13:08) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 3 – SF 0
  • Q1 09:41 TD SF (9:41) (Shotgun) 24-S.Draughn right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – SF 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD SF (15:00) (Shotgun) 24-S.Draughn up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – SF 13
  • Q2 10:37 FG SEA (10:37) 4-S.Hauschka 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 6 – SF 14
  • Q2 06:59 TD SEA (6:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 82-L.Willson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 12 – SF 14
  • Q2 03:03 TD SEA (3:03) 70-R.Odhiambo reported in as eligible. 34-T.Rawls left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 19 – SF 14
  • Q3 08:19 FG SEA (8:19) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 22 – SF 14
  • Q3 05:06 SAF SF (5:06) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan Aborted. 48-N.Frese FUMBLES at SEA 0, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. SEA 22 – SF 16
  • Q4 14:12 FG SEA (14:12) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 25 – SF 16
  • Q4 05:51 TD SF (5:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short middle to 88-G.Celek for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 25 – SF 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 95%

    (13:08) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:19) 9-J.Ryan punts 64 yards to SF 9, Center-48-N.Frese. 17-J.Kerley pushed ob at SF 21 for 12 yards (86-B.Williams).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 85%

    (4:23) (Shotgun) 24-S.Draughn up the middle to SEA 23 for 1 yard (93-T.McDaniel). Officials to measure for 1st down - Successful.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 24-S.Draughn up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (10:37) 4-S.Hauschka 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to SEA 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 25-R.Sherman.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:47) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to SEA 31, Center-86-K.Nelson. 25-R.Sherman pushed ob at SEA 37 for 6 yards (29-J.Tartt).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (:35) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to SF 14, Center-48-N.Frese, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:46) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to SF 24, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (8:19) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (6:11) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 25-R.Sherman.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:06) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan Aborted. 48-N.Frese FUMBLES at SEA 0, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 18 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:14) 5-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to SEA 28, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 25-R.Sherman.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (14:12) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to SEA 6, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:18) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to SF 36, Center-48-N.Frese. 17-J.Kerley to SF 32 for -4 yards. Lateral to 31-R.Mostert to SEA 35 for 33 yards (41-D.McDonald, 9-J.Ryan).