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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 22

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 25-R.Sherman.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.20 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP