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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Seattle Seahawks 25

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to SEA 6, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.93 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model