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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.94 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP