Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 81

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Seattle Seahawks 22

(3:14) 5-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to SEA 28, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 25-R.Sherman.

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.92 EP
75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 81, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model