Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 25 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to SF 36, Center-48-N.Frese. 17-J.Kerley to SF 32 for -4 yards. Lateral to 31-R.Mostert to SEA 35 for 33 yards (41-D.McDonald, 9-J.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.59 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model