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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 19 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(:35) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to SF 14, Center-48-N.Frese, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.69 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP