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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 78

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 19

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to SEA 31, Center-86-K.Nelson. 25-R.Sherman pushed ob at SEA 37 for 6 yards (29-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.42 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 78, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 35, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model