Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 86

Seattle Seahawks 22 – San Francisco 49ers 14

(5:06) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan Aborted. 48-N.Frese FUMBLES at SEA 0, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.57 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP