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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 1

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 24-S.Draughn up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.62 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model