4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 19 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model