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Buffalo Bills

HC Anthony Lynn
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

BUF
58.5%
NYJ
41.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BUF defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to NYJ: Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) -0.061 vs EJ Manuel (BUF) -0.122 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Ryan Fitzpatrick in place of Bryce Petty; BUF starting EJ Manuel in place of Tyrod Taylor)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 23
–
NYJ 20
Projected margin: BUF by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

BUF

Stephon Gilmore CB Out Concussion
Cordy Glenn T Out Back
Zach Brown LB Questionable Illness
Preston Brown LB Questionable Foot
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
John Miller G Questionable Hip
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Foot
Kyle Williams DT Questionable Back

NYJ

Matt Forte RB Out Knee
Lorenzo Mauldin LB Out Ankle
Steve McLendon DT Out Hamstring
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Out Hamstring
Nick Marshall CB Doubtful Hamstring
Robby Anderson WR Questionable Hamstring
Juston Burris CB Questionable Knee
Brandon Marshall WR Questionable Hip
Bilal Powell RB Questionable Knee
Sheldon Richardson DT Questionable Back
Brandon Wilds RB Questionable Hamstring
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 10
–
NYJ 30

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:32 TD NYJ (9:32) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 29-B.Powell for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 01:48 FG BUF (1:48) 2-D.Carpenter 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 3 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG NYJ (:03) 2-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. BUF 3 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 04:08 TD NYJ (4:08) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 89-J.Marshall for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 3 – NYJ 16
  • Q3 00:06 FG NYJ (:06) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. BUF 3 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 03:24 FG NYJ (3:24) 2-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. BUF 3 – NYJ 23
  • Q4 03:21 TD NYJ 2-N.Folk kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to BUF 0. RECOVERED by NYJ-36-D.Middleton, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – NYJ 29
  • Q4 00:43 TD BUF (:43) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – NYJ 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:55) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to NYJ 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 21 for 1 yard (50-R.Humber).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 28%

    (9:48) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to BUF 8, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 13 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:57) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to NYJ 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 42 for 4 yards (56-L.McCray).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%

    (1:51) 79-B.Qvale and 64-C.Watts reported in as eligible. 29-B.Powell up the middle to BUF 14 for no gain (52-P.Brown).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to NYJ 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 25 for -2 yards (57-L.Alexander).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 37 yards to NYJ 21, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:04) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to BUF 30, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (1:48) 2-D.Carpenter 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 41%

    (12:54) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:02) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to NYJ 37, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 89-J.Marshall to BUF 44 for 19 yards (20-C.Graham).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 96%

    (7:41) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell left guard to BUF 11 for -1 yards (99-M.Dareus; 52-P.Brown).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 91%

    (:06) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 88%

    (11:48) (Shotgun) 7-C.Jones pass incomplete short left to 14-S.Watkins (27-D.Roberts).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:14) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to BUF 26, Center-46-T.Purdum. 15-B.Tate to BUF 27 for 1 yard (50-D.Lee).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:14) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to NYJ 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 28 for 2 yards (65-G.Sanborn; 52-P.Brown).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:43) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-T.Purdum. 15-B.Tate ran ob at BUF 37 for 23 yards (50-D.Lee).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (3:24) 2-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.