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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 18

New York Jets 17 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(:06) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 18, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model