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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 7

New York Jets 20 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 2-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 7, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model